Fig. 1

Fitting of the models, stratified by dementia status, to predict institutionalization and mortality. The concordance between the predicted and observed outcomes was assessed by comparing the probabilities of institutionalization and mortality for each time point as estimated by the Cox model to those obtained by the Kaplan-Meier method, respectively. For this purpose, the prognostic index was calculated based on the models (model 2; constructed with all candidate predictors) for each test set in the fivefold cross-validation based on the linear predictor from the corresponding training set and we categorized the prognostic index into four risk groups