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Table 3 Neuropathology prediction models

From: Prediction models for dementia and neuropathology in the oldest old: the Vantaa 85+ cohort study

Neuropathological outcomes Predictors AUC [95%CI] Description of predictors by neuropathological outcome categories
Absent Present
β-Amyloid load Overall modela 0.66 [0.56 - 0.77] N=37 (23%) N=126 (77%)
APOE genotypeb 0.63 [0.56 - 0.71]   
APOEε2 carriersc 0.57 [0.50 - 0.64] 10 (27%) 16 (13%)
APOEε4 carriersc 0.60 [0.55 - 0.65] 2 (5%) 31 (25%)
All genotypes (23/24/33/34/44)c,d 0.62 [0.54 - 0.70] 9/1/26/1/0
(24/3/70/3/0%)
13/3/78/28/0
(11/2/64/23/0%)
Functioningb 0.61 [0.51 - 0.70]   
Competence in Daily Activitiesc 0.61 [0.51 - 0.70] 2.7 (1.4) 3.2 (1.4)
Tangle count Overall modela 0.64 [0.55 - 0.73] N=64 (39%) N=99 (61%)
APOE genotypeb 0.60 [0.54 - 0.67]   
APOEε4 carriersc 0.61 [0.55 - 0.67] 5 (8%) 28 (29%)
APOE ε3ε3 genotypec 0.59 [0.52 - 0.66] 48 (75%) 56 (58%)
All genotypes (23/24/33/34/44)c,d 0.55 [0.48 - 0.62] 10/1/48/4/0
(16/2/76/6/0%)
12/3/56/25/0
(13/3/58/26/0%)
Cholesterolb 0.60 [0.51 - 0.70]   
Totalc 0.61 [0.51 - 0.70] 5.6 (1.4) 5.9 (1.2)
LDLc 0.60 [0.50 - 0.69] 3.6 (1.1) 3.9 (1.0)
Functioningb 0.59 [0.50 - 0.67]   
Subjective memory declinec 0.59 [0.50 - 0.67] 1.7 (0.6) 1.9 (0.7)
Neuropathological AD Overall modela 0.68 [0.61 - 0.76] N=86 (53%) N=77 (47%)
APOE genotypeb 0.65 [0.59 - 0.71]   
APOEε2 carriersc 0.57 [0.51 - 0.62] 19 (23%) 7 (9%)
APOEε4 carriersc 0.62 [0.57 - 0.67] 8 (10%) 25 (33%)
All genotypes (23/24/33/34/44)c,d 0.64 [0.58 - 0.70] 17/2/59/6/0
(20/2/70/7/0%)
5/2/45/23/0
(7/3/60/31/0%)
Sociodemographicsb 0.62 [0.53 - 0.70]   
Social classc 0.62 [0.53 - 0.70] 6.4 (1.5) 5.9 (1.2)
Functioningb 0.58 [0.50 - 0.66]   
Subjective memory declinec 0.58 [0.50 - 0.66] 1.7 (0.6) 1.9 (0.7)
Cerebral amyloid angiopathy Overall modela 0.66 [0.58 - 0.74] N=56 (35%) N=103 (65%)
APOE genotypeb 0.62 [0.55 - 0.69]   
APOEε4 carriersc 0.63 [0.58 - 0.68] 2 (4%) 30 (30%)
APOE ε3ε3 genotypec 0.59 [0.52 - 0.67] 43 (78%) 59 (59%)
All genotypes (23/24/33/34/44)c,d 0.61 [0.55 - 0.68] 10/1/43/1/0
(18/2/78/2/0%)
11/3/59/27/0
(11/3/59/27/0%)
Comorbidityb 0.59 [0.52 - 0.65]   
Cardiovascularc 0.59 [0.52 - 0.65] 48 (86%) 70 (68%)
Sociodemographics 0.58 [0.53 - 0.64]   
Gender, menc 0.58 [0.53 - 0.64] 5 (9%) 26 (25%)
Cerebral macroinfarcts Overall modela 0.72 [0.64 - 0.79] N=83 (51%) N=80 (49%)
Comorbidityb 0.64 [0.58 - 0.70]   
Cerebrovascularc 0.64 [0.58 - 0.70] 4 (5%) 26 (33%)
Cognitionb 0.63 [0.54 - 0.72]   
MMSE Wordlistc 0.63 [0.55 - 0.71] 4.6 (1.3) 4.0 (1.3)
MMSE Totalc 0.62 [0.52 - 0.71] 23.8 (4.6) 22.0 (4.5)
Lifestyleb 0.62 [0.53 - 0.70]   
BMIc 0.62 [0.53 - 0.70] 23.9 (4.1) 25.5 (4.2)
Functioningb 0.59 [0.51 - 0.66]   
Competence in Daily Activitiesc 0.59 [0.51 - 0.66] 2.9 (1.4) 3.3 (1.3)
Cortical macroinfarcts Overall modela 0.71 [0.63 - 0.79] N=116 (71%) N=47 (29%)
Comorbidityb 0.64 [0.57 - 0.71]   
Cerebrovascularc 0.64 [0.57 - 0.71] 12 (10%) 18 (38%)
APOE genotypeb 0.60 [0.51 - 0.69]   
APOEε4 carriersc 0.58 [0.51 - 0.65] 18 (16%) 15 (33%)
APOE ε3ε3 genotypec 0.59 [0.50 - 0.68] 80 (71%) 24 (52%)
White matter macroinfarcts Overall modela 0.76 [0.65 - 0.87] N=140 (86%) N=23 (14%)
Cholesterolb 0.72 [0.60 - 0.83]   
HDLc 0.68 [0.58 - 0.79] 1.0 (0.3) 0.9 (0.3)
LDLc 0.70 [0.58 - 0.83] 3.9 (1.0) 3.2 (1.0)
Comorbidityb 0.62 [0.51 - 0.73]   
Cerebrovascularc 0.62 [0.51 - 0.73] 21 (15%) 9 (39%)
APOE genotypeb 0.61 [0.50 - 0.71]   
APOEε2 carriersc 0.61 [0.50 - 0.71] 18 (13%) 8 (35%)
Cerebral microinfarcts Overall modela 0.61 [0.51 - 0.71] N=130 (83%) N=26 (17%)
Education yearsc 0.61 [0.51 - 0.71] 4.5 (2.9) 3.3 (1.8)
Hippocampal Sclerosis Overall modela 0.78 [0.64 - 0.91] N=151 (93%) N=11 (7%)
Cognitionb 0.75 [0.59 - 0.92]   
MMSE Wordlistc 0.68 [0.54 - 0.83] 4.4 (1.3) 3.6 (0.9)
MMSE Other tasksc 0.74 [0.57 - 0.90] 6.9 (1.5) 5.8 (1.4)
MMSE Totalc 0.72 [0.55 - 0.90] 23.1 (4.6) 22.3 (4.1)
Lifestyleb 0.57 [0.42 - 0.71]   
Current smokingc 0.57 [0.42 - 0.71] 4 (3%) 2 (18%)
TDP-43 Overall modela 0.69 [0.56 - 0.81] N=139 (86%) N=21 (13%)
Zung depression scalec 0.69 [0.56 - 0.81] 27.5 (5.8) 23.7 (2.8)
  1. Abbreviations: AD Alzheimer’s Disease, APOE Apolipoprotein E, BMI body mass index, HDL/LDL High/low density lipoprotein, MMSE Mini-Mental State Examination, SPMSQ Short portable mental status questionnaire, TDP-43 TAR DNA-binding protein 43.
  2. AUC [95% CI] values are shown for 10*10-fold cross-validation of the DSI model. In the “Description of predictors…” columns, values are shown as mean (standard deviation) or number (percentage). Number of participants with missing data was 4 for cerebral amyloid angiopathy, 4 for cerebral microinfarcts, , 4 for APOE genotype, 5 for MMSE, 6 for subjective memory, 3 for education, 1 for social class, 1 for smoking, 3 for Zung scale, 10 for cholesterol, and 39 for BMI.
  3. aOverall model performance for each neuropathological outcome
  4. bOverall performance of each group of related predictors.
  5. cPerformance of each individual predictor
  6. dCategorical variable including genotype ε2ε3, ε2ε4, ε3ε3, ε3ε4 or ε4ε4
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