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Table 2 Dementia prediction model

From: Prediction models for dementia and neuropathology in the oldest old: the Vantaa 85+ cohort study

Predictors AUC [95% CI] Sensitivity [95% CI] Specificity [95% CI]
Entire modela 0.73 [0.68–0.78] 0.66 [0.63–0.69] 0.68 [0.66–0.71]
Cognitionb 0.72 [0.66–0.78] 0.55 [0.51–0.59] 0.55 [0.52–0.58]
 MMSE Calculationc 0.60 [0.53–0.68] 0.53 [0.49–0.56] 0.68 [0.66–0.70]
 MMSE Orientationc 0.64 [0.58–0.70] 0.68 [0.65–0.71] 0.54 [0.51–0.56]
 MMSE Other tasksc 0.65 [0.58–0.72] 0.56 [0.53–0.58] 0.67 [0.65–0.69]
 MMSE Wordlistc 0.68 [0.62–0.75] 0.77 [0.75–0.80] 0.57 [0.55–0.60]
 SPMSQc 0.71 [0.65–0.77] 0.67 [0.65–0.70] 0.64 [0.62–0.67]
 MMSE totalc 0.71 [0.64–0.77] 0.62 [0.59–0.65] 0.61 [0.58–0.63]
Functioningb 0.61 [0.55–0.67] 0.62 [0.59–0.65] 0.61 [0.58–0.63]
 Competence in daily activitiesc 0.61 [0.55–0.67] 0.83 [0.81–0.86] 0.35 [0.32–0.38]
Sociodemographicsb 0.60 [0.54–0.65] 0.83 [0.81–0.86] 0.35 [0.32–0.38]
 Education, yearsc 0.60 [0.54–0.65] 0.66 [0.63–0.69] 0.68 [0.66–0.71]
APOE genotypeb 0.58 [0.52–0.64] 0.45 [0.42–0.47] 0.69 [0.67–0.71]
APOEε2 carriersc 0.56 [0.51–0.61] 0.25 [0.23–0.27] 0.88 [0.86–0.89]
APOEε3ε3 genotypec 0.57 [0.51–0.63] 0.45 [0.42–0.47] 0.69 [0.67–0.71]
 All genotypesc,d (23/24/33/34/44) 0.58 [0.51–0.64] 0.67 [0.64–0.70] 0.66 [0.63–0.68]
  1. Abbreviations: APOE Apoliprotein E, MMSE Mini Mental State Examination, SPMSQ Short Portable Mental Status Questionnaire
  2. AUC, sensitivity and specificity [95% CI] values using the cutoff point Disease State Index (DSI) = 0.5 are shown for 10 × 10-fold cross-validation of the DSI model. Numbers of participants with missing data were 3 for education and 3 for APOE genotype
  3. aOverall model performance
  4. bOverall performance of each group of related predictors
  5. cPerformance of each individual predictor
  6. dCategorical variable including genotype ε2ε3, ε2ε4, ε3ε3, ε3ε4, or ε4ε4
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